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John Merrifield's avatar

How many Americans recognize that we cannot afford the federal government we have; that the Federal government must shed some valued functions?

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Dr Horace Gupta's avatar

You are right. The deficit and the debt are important. All economists agree there is a point at which it will be unsustainable because it will impact the credit worthiness of the United States. Few of them have any idea what that tipping point is. Japan has a remarkably high debt-to-GDP ratio, the highest among 172 countries. Its government debt exceeds its GDP, which stands at approximately ¥550 trillion JPY ($4.71 trillion USD). Many predicted economic collapse. Obviously, those predictions were not well founded.

There are excellent ways to lower the debt. It goes without saying that one should find cuts in the biggest expenditures (entitlements, defense, etc.) and increase revenue. Cutting research isn't one of those things. Calculating return on investment (ROI) for research is a notoriously fuzzy proposition, but, in general, for every dollar invested in research $2-3 is returned in economic growth. Cutting research is like reducing your debt by lowering your contribution to your IRA. Moreover, it's like spending hours searching for quarters in your couch to pay off your mortgage. This is more about politics than actually reducing the debt.

as an addendum:

🔬 1. NIH Funding: $2.56 Return per $1 Invested

In Fiscal Year 2024, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) awarded $36.94 billion in research funding, which supported 407,782 jobs and generated $94.58 billion in economic activity nationwide. This equates to a return of $2.56 for every $1 invested.

📈 2. Federal R&D Drives Long-Term Productivity Growth

A study by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found that increases in nondefense government R&D appropriations lead to sustained growth in long-term productivity. The effects become significant after about eight years and persist for at least 15 years, boosting various measures of productivity and scientific innovation.

💼 3. Public R&D Investment Supports Millions of Jobs

In 2018, public R&D investment directly and indirectly supported more than 1.6 million U.S. jobs, $126 billion in labor income, and $197 billion in added economic value. Projections suggest that increasing R&D spending to 1% of GDP by 2030 could support 3.4 million jobs and contribute $478 billion in economic value.

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